10 Techniques for Improving Machine Learning Models

Improving machine learning models starts with controlling hypothesis complexity: the techniques in this guide, from Occam’s Razor to regularization, pruning, ensemble methods, and cross-validation, all work by favoring simpler models that generalize well over complex ones that overfit. Heuristic search is a method of problem-solving that uses a specific set of rules or “heuristics” to guide the search for a solution. In inductive learning, the heuristic search can be used to search for the most likely hypothesis or model that explains a given set of data. This can be done by using heuristics to guide the search through the space of possible hypotheses and evaluating each hypothesis based on how well it fits the data. Heuristic search can be useful in inductive learning because it can help to find a good hypothesis quickly, even when the space of possible hypotheses is large and complex.

There are several techniques that can be used to optimize the complexity of a hypothesis during a heuristic search in inductive learning. If you are tuning these models by hand, a tool like GridSearchCV can automate much of the search across hyperparameter combinations described below:

Occam’s Razor:

This principle states that, given a set of competing hypotheses, the simplest hypothesis that explains the data is the most likely to be true. This can be used to guide the search by favoring simpler hypotheses over more complex ones.

For example, imagine you are trying to explain why a certain plant is not growing well in your garden. You might come up with several hypotheses, such as:

Hypothesis 1: The plant is not getting enough water.

Hypothesis 2: The plant is not getting enough sunlight.

Hypothesis 3: The plant has a disease that is causing it to not grow well.

Hypothesis 4: The plant is not getting enough water and sunlight, and it also has a disease.

According to Occam’s Razor, the simplest hypothesis (in this case, Hypothesis 1 or 2) is the most likely to be true, because it explains the data (the plant not growing well) with the least amount of assumptions. Therefore, in this example, the solution would be to make sure the plant is getting enough water or sunlight, before moving to more complex explanations.

Regularization:

This technique adds a penalty term to the likelihood of a hypothesis that is proportional to its complexity. This can help to discourage overly complex hypotheses and encourage simpler ones.

For example, imagine you are trying to build a machine-learning model that predicts the price of a house based on various features such as square footage, number of bedrooms, etc.

If you have a lot of features and a complex model, it might fit the data very well but have high complexity. This could lead to overfitting, where the model performs well on the training data but poorly on unseen data.

In this case, you could use regularization to add a penalty term to the likelihood of the hypothesis that is proportional to its complexity. This would discourage overly complex models, and encourage simpler models that generalize better to unseen data.

A common method of regularization is L1 and L2 regularization which add a penalty term to the sum of the absolute values or squares of the parameters respectively. If you are building these models on top of linear algebra fundamentals, it helps to understand how vectors and matrices represent the weight parameters that regularization is penalizing.

In simple terms, regularization can be thought of as a way to keep the model simple and prevent it from overfitting the training data. It helps to find the balance between fitting the data well and keeping the model simple.

Pruning:

This technique involves removing hypotheses that are unlikely to be true based on their complexity. This can be done by setting a maximum complexity threshold, or by using other heuristics to identify and eliminate complex hypotheses that are unlikely to be true.

For example, imagine you are trying to build a decision tree for classifying animals. The decision tree starts with the root node and branches off into different sub-nodes depending on the value of certain features.

As you keep adding sub-nodes, the decision tree becomes more complex. However, not all of these sub-nodes are necessary to classify the animals correctly. Some of them might be overfitting the data and not providing any useful information.

In this case, you could use pruning to remove these unnecessary sub-nodes and simplify the decision tree. One popular method of pruning is reduced error pruning, where the accuracy of the decision tree is computed on a validation dataset after each node is pruned, and if the accuracy does not decrease, the node is removed.

In simple terms, pruning can be thought of as a way to simplify the model by removing unnecessary parts of it. This can help to improve the performance of the model and make it more interpretable.

Ensemble methods:

Ensemble methods involve combining multiple hypotheses to form a more robust and accurate final hypothesis. This can be done by averaging the predictions of different models, or by combining them in other ways.

For example, imagine you are trying to predict the stock market prices. You might use different models such as linear regression, decision trees, and random forest. Each of these models will make predictions based on different features and might have different strengths and weaknesses.

An ensemble method such as bagging or boosting could be used to combine the predictions of these models to form a more robust and accurate final prediction. Bagging is used to decrease the variance of predictions by training multiple models independently and averaging them. Boosting is used to decrease the bias of predictions by training multiple models sequentially and giving more weight to the misclassified examples. A related classifier worth knowing here is the support vector machine, which handles high-dimensional feature spaces well and is often included as one of the base models in an ensemble.

In simple terms, ensemble methods can be thought of as a way to improve the performance of a model by combining the predictions of multiple models. This can help to reduce the errors of individual models and create a more solid and accurate final hypothesis.

Cross-validation:

This technique involves splitting the data into training and testing sets and evaluating the performance of a hypothesis on the testing set. This can be used to identify hypotheses that are overfitting the data and are likely to be overly complex.

For example, imagine you are trying to build a machine-learning model to classify an email as spam or not spam. You have a dataset of 10,000 emails, and you want to use 80% of the data for training and 20% for testing.

In traditional validation, you would randomly split the data into a training set and a testing set, and train the model on the training set and test it on the testing set. But this method may lead to overfitting if the testing set is not representative.

Instead, you can use cross-validation, where the data is split into k folds, and the model is trained and tested k times, each time with a different fold as the testing set. This way, all the data is used for testing and training, and it provides a more robust estimate of the model’s performance.

In simple terms, cross-validation is a method of evaluating the performance of a hypothesis by testing it on multiple subsets of data. This can help to identify the best hypothesis and avoid overfitting by providing an unbiased estimate of the model performance. Techniques like AutoML now automate much of this evaluation loop, running cross-validation across many candidate models before a human ever picks one.

Bayesian Model Selection:

Bayesian Model Selection is a method of comparing the relative likelihoods of different hypotheses given the data and selecting the hypothesis with the highest likelihood. This can help to identify the best hypothesis and avoid overfitting by taking into account the complexity of the hypothesis.

For example, imagine you are trying to build a machine-learning model to predict the price of a house based on certain features such as square footage and the number of bedrooms. You want to compare different linear regression models with different numbers of features, such as a simple model with only square footage as a feature, and a more complex model with square footage and the number of bedrooms as features.

In traditional model selection, you would simply choose the model with the lowest error on the training data. But this method may lead to overfitting, as the model with more features may have a lower error on the training data but a higher error on the testing data.

Instead, you can use Bayesian Model Selection, where you calculate the relative likelihood of each model given the data and select the model with the highest likelihood. This way, it takes into account the complexity of the model and the amount of data available.

In simple terms, Bayesian Model Selection is a method of comparing the relative likelihoods of different hypotheses given the data, and selecting the hypothesis with the highest likelihood. This can help to identify the best hypothesis and avoid overfitting by taking into account the complexity of the hypothesis. Once you have narrowed down a model, documenting the selection process matters too — see our guide on writing an AI/ML research paper for how to present these comparisons rigorously.

Genetic Algorithm:

This is an optimization technique that uses principles of natural selection to find the optimal solution. It can be used to search through the space of possible hypotheses and evolve the best hypothesis over time.

For example, imagine you are trying to build a machine-learning model to predict stock prices. You have a set of parameters that influence the performance of the model such as learning rate, number of layers, and number of neurons. A genetic algorithm can be used to find the best combination of these parameters that results in the highest accuracy for the model.

The genetic algorithm starts by generating a population of random solutions (parameter combinations), and then evaluates the fitness of each solution (model accuracy). The best solutions (models) are then selected and used to create a new population through a process of crossover and mutation. This process is repeated multiple times until a satisfactory solution is found.

In simple terms, Genetic Algorithm is a method of optimization inspired by the process of natural selection in biology that helps to find the best combination of parameters that results in the highest accuracy for the model by simulating the process of evolution.

Particle Swarm Optimization:

This is another optimization technique that can be used to search through the space of possible hypotheses. It is based on the behavior of swarms of particles, which move toward the best solution through a process of trial and error.

For example, imagine you are trying to build a machine-learning model to predict stock prices. You have a set of parameters that influence the performance of the model such as learning rate, number of layers, and number of neurons. A PSO algorithm can be used to find the best combination of these parameters that results in the highest accuracy for the model.

The PSO algorithm starts by generating a population of particles (parameter combinations), and then evaluates the fitness of each particle (model accuracy). Each particle then moves towards the best solution it has encountered so far, as well as the best solution encountered by the entire swarm. This process is repeated multiple times until a satisfactory solution is found.

In simple terms, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is a method of optimization inspired by the behavior of a swarm of particles, such as birds or fish that helps to find the best combination of parameters that results in the highest accuracy for the model by simulating the movement of a swarm of particles.

Randomized search:

Randomized search is a method of optimization that randomly samples from the set of possible solutions to find the best one.

For example, imagine you are trying to build a machine-learning model to predict stock prices. You have a set of parameters that influence the performance of the model such as learning rate, number of layers, and number of neurons. A randomized search can be used to find the best combination of these parameters that results in the highest accuracy for the model.

The randomized search algorithm starts by generating a set of random parameter combinations and then evaluates the fitness of each combination (model accuracy). The best combination is then selected as the solution. The process is repeated a number of times with different random parameter combinations until a satisfactory solution is found.

In simple terms, Randomized search is a method of optimization that randomly samples from the set of possible solutions to find the best one. It can be used to find the best combination of parameters that results in the highest accuracy for the model.

Hill Climbing Algorithm:

Hill Climbing is a method of optimization that iteratively improves a solution by making small changes to it and evaluating whether the new solution is better than the previous one.

For example, imagine you are trying to build a machine-learning model to predict stock prices. You have a set of parameters that influence the performance of the model such as learning rate, number of layers, and number of neurons. A Hill Climbing algorithm can be used to find the best combination of these parameters that results in the highest accuracy for the model.

The Hill Climbing algorithm starts by selecting an initial solution (a set of parameters) and then evaluates the fitness of this solution (model accuracy). It then makes small changes to the solution and evaluates the new solution. If the new solution is better than the previous one, it becomes the new current solution. This process is repeated until a satisfactory solution is found.

In simple terms, Hill Climbing Algorithm is a method of optimization that iteratively improves a solution by making small changes to it and evaluating whether the new solution is better than the previous one. It can be used to find the best combination of parameters that results in the highest accuracy for the model.